The Conservative Party of British Columbia has achieved a polling result of 27 per cent, surpassing their previous highest poll of 19 per cent in 2019.
In the latest Mainstreet Research survey, if an election were held today in British Columbia, 35 percent of eligible voters would cast their ballots for the B.C. NDP, with the B.C. Conservative Party closely following at 27 percent.
Source: Mainstreet Research
Compared to the 2020 election results, the New Democrats would experience a decline of 13 percentage points from their 48 per cent vote share in the 2020 general election. This marks the NDP's lowest polling numbers since February 2020, when they were polled at 36 per cent. The party had not fallen below 40 per cent, except in a July 2020 poll where it reached 38 per cent.
The B.C. United (BCU), formerly known as the B.C. Liberal Party, would receive 22 per cent of the vote share, followed by the B.C. Greens at 13 per cent, with 4 per cent going to other parties. Furthermore, the BCU can expect to see a nine percentage points drop in support compared to the 2020 B.C. election when they earned 34 per cent. This is the BCU's lowest polling performance since 2021, as they had never polled below 25 per cent in the British Columbia Legislature.
According to the Mainstreet poll, which was modeled by Kyle Hutton, a map maker and contributor to 338 Canada, the model predicts that the NDP would win 49 seats, which is 8 seats fewer than in the last election. The Conservative Party is projected to win 32 seats, marking the first time the Conservative Party would win a seat in the British Columbia Legislature since 1975. The Conservative Party has not won a seat since 1975, although two MLAs crossed the floor and joined the Conservative Party in the Birtish Columbia Legislature.
Mapped and modelled by Kyle Hutton; Source: PollingCanada/Twitter
In March 2012, John van Dongen, one of the longest-serving Liberal MLAs in the B.C. Legislature, quit the Liberal Party and joined the Conservatives just two months before the B.C. general election. However, he later ran as an Independent candidate and lost the race in May 2012.
In February 2023, John Rustad, an MLA who had previously been sitting as an independent after leaving the Liberal Party in 2022, joined the Conservatives. He was named party leader in March 2023.
Based on the model by Hutton, the BCU would secure 10 seats, marking a loss of 18 seats compared to the last election. The Greens would win two seats, the same number they won in the 2020 election.
Sami Parvez is a freelance journalist based in Kitchener, Canada. He tweets at @BalochSami and can be reached at samieparvez@gmail.com
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